3.6 Deception and Unpredictability

A predictable player in poker is generally a bad player. Consider a player who never bluffs (when that player bets, they always have a strong hand). Observant opponents are more likely to fold (correctly) when this player bets, reducing the winning pot size. Of course, against weak, unobservant opponents, never bluffing may be a correct strategy. However, in general, deception and unpredictability are important. Although the cost and benefit of such actions must be considered, unpredictability can be achieved by randomly mixing actions. For example, do not raise every time you hold a high pair before the flop, otherwise an observant opponent can assume you are not holding a high pair when you simply call in the pre-flop. Deception is more complex and can be achieved through numerous different high-level strategies. Following are some of these strategies.

• Changing Styles: is a simple form of deception to deliberately create false impressions. For example, early in the session you might play a tight conservative style and show a lot of winning hands at the showdown. Later you switch to a looser style, and observant players are likely to continue to treat you as a tight player and take your bets very seriously.

• Slowplaying: `` ... is playing a hand weakly on one round of betting in order to suck people in for later bets" [13]. Checking or calling in an earlier round of betting shows weakness, and this hopefully leads to your opponents being willing to put money in the pot later in the hand (particularly in those variants of Hold'em where the bet size doubles in later rounds). However, since you will often be up against many opponents, you need a very strong hand for this kind of play.

• Check-raising: is another way to play a strong hand weakly. Sklansky calls it a way to ``trap your opponents and win more money from them" [13]. Essentially you believe that had you opened betting in the round you would either drive out players or only get one bet (no one would raise). But if you believe that one of your opponents will open the betting you begin the round by checking. Assuming the opening bet is then made, you follow by raising. Hopefully, players who have already put in a bet are willing to put in a second. However, even if players fold you still have their money from the opening bet.

• Bluffing: is an essential strategy in poker. It has been mathematically proven that you need to over-play or under-play (bluff or slowplay) in some way for optimal play in simplified poker [11]. Bluffing allows you to make a profit from weak hands, but it also creates a false impression which will increase the profitability of future hands (a lot of money can be won when betting a very strong hand and your opponent suspects you may be bluffing). In practice, you need to be able to predict the probability that your opponent will call in order to identify profitable opportunities. A game-theoretic explanation of the optimum bluffing frequency is presented in [13].

• Semi-bluffing: is a bet with a hand which is not likely to be the best hand at the moment but has a good chance of outdrawing calling hands ( e.g. a four-card-flush). On occasion this play will also win outright when your opponents fold. The combined chances of winning immediately, or improving when called, makes it a profitable play.

Note that sometimes deception can be used to play an action which does not necessarily have the largest expected value, but rather creates a false impression which may indirectly lead to returns in the future. While undoubtedly important, it is difficult to measure the effectiveness of this type of deception.